Ethereum usage is at record highs yet ETH nears its longest monthly losing streak since 2018

Ethereum is approaching its longest monthly losing streak since the 2018 crypto winter, marking six straight monthly declines despite posting record transaction activity. This contrast highlights that the market is reevaluating ETH's value, as mechanisms supporting a simple bullish thesis are now harder to model compared to 2018 when the network was less mature.

ETH is currently behaving like a high-beta trade in broad selloffs, meaning its price moves more sharply than Bitcoin due to thinner market depth and higher leverage. Open interest in ETH futures has dropped significantly, indicating reduced risk-taking, while options markets show traders are paying a premium for downside protection. Furthermore, capital formation signals are weak: U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen consistent net outflows over the past four months, and major stablecoin market capitalization has declined for two consecutive months, signaling a slowdown in crypto-native purchasing power.

While network scaling, driven by lower fees from Dencun upgrades, has pushed daily transactions to new highs, this progress complicates the valuation story. The 'ultrasound money' narrative based on fee burn is now conditional rather than automatic, as lower fees mean less burn during normal activity. For the streak to end, Ethereum likely needs a macro tailwind, stabilizing ETF flows, and renewed stablecoin growth, shifting the focus from fee burn to its indispensability as a settlement layer.

(Source：CryptoSlate)