Morgan Stanley warns of oil price crisis as Strait of Hormuz closure continues

Morgan Stanley analysts are cautioning about a significant energy shock, predicting Brent crude could surge to $150 per barrel by summer 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This waterway, which previously handled about 20 million barrels of oil daily, now sees near-zero flow. The bank describes the situation as a "race against time" as global oil inventories deplete faster than alternative supplies can compensate, potentially leading to stagflation. Tensions involving Iran are the geopolitical backdrop, with no resolution in sight, increasing the risk premium on global crude. While the US and Saudi Arabia benefit from higher prices, import-dependent Asian economies are struggling. The article also highlights the impact on Bitcoin miners, whose profitability is heavily tied to energy costs. Rising oil prices have already affected Bitcoin, and a sustained disruption could lead to a drop in the network hashrate, potentially reducing network security and market confidence. The connection between oil prices and crypto valuations is through inflation expectations; higher energy costs fuel inflation, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy, which negatively impacts risk assets like Bitcoin. A potential upside for miners could be an accelerated shift to renewable energy sources. Traders are advised to monitor Brent crude prices and Bitcoin's network hashrate as indicators of market health.

(Source：Crypto Briefing)