The Green Beret was just the start: New data suggests a broader insider trading crisis on Polymarket
New data indicates a widespread insider trading issue on Polymarket, particularly in defense bets, beyond a single alleged breach.Summary
A new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests that an alleged insider trading case involving a Green Beret on Polymarket may be indicative of a larger crisis. Analyzing over 435,000 Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to March 2026, the ACDC found that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have unusually high win rates, exceeding 50% in some instances, which is difficult to attribute to skill or luck alone. These markets, often tied to specific government policies, are more susceptible to information asymmetries. The findings align with previous research indicating that a small percentage of traders drive price discovery and capture most profits on the platform. A case study of U.S. strikes on Iran in June 2025 revealed large, well-timed bets placed shortly before the event, resulting in significant profits for a few wallets. The report recommends measures like identity verification, conditional payouts, and restrictions on certain market types, and questions whether the public should be betting on such outcomes at all.
(Source：CoinDesk)