Crypto bottom may be in sight but recession risk clouds the outlook: Coinbase

A joint report by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode suggests that cryptocurrency markets may be nearing a bottom after a turbulent start to the year. However, the firms remain cautious due to increasing global recession risks, with the IMF lowering its global growth forecast and Oxford Economics warning of a potential severe recession. David Duong of Coinbase stated their outlook is neutral for Q2 2026, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainty that makes short-term positioning difficult. Macro liquidity and Middle East geopolitical risks are currently overshadowing crypto-specific catalysts like regulatory progress and AI development. Despite these headwinds, technical indicators in crypto and equities are showing signs of stabilization, potentially offering near-term market support if geopolitical conditions don't worsen. On-chain data for Bitcoin indicates an "accumulation zone" with long-term holders increasing positions, and short-term speculative supply decreasing. Ethereum's NUPL metric has moved from "capitulation" towards "Hope," while stablecoin supply on the network is near all-time highs, and tokenized real-world assets are growing. Ether's outperformance of Layer 2 tokens suggests capital is returning to the base layer. The significant pool of stablecoin capital, growing in Q1, acts as a "waiting room" for potential re-entry into the market. A survey of institutional investors reveals a contradiction: while a majority believe the market is in a late-bear phase, most also consider Bitcoin undervalued.

(Source：Crypto Briefing)