100,000 Polymarket Accounts Booked Four-Figure Losses Since 2025, Bloomberg Finds

A Bloomberg analysis of the prediction market platform Polymarket found that over 100,000 accounts have incurred losses of at least $1,000 since January 2025. This figure is nearly double the number of wallets that have achieved comparable gains. The majority of profits on the platform appear to be concentrated among a small group of accounts, which are suspected to be automated trading bots. Out of approximately two million active wallets since early 2025, nearly half saw gains or losses under $10, suggesting many users were casually testing the platform. Even among these casual users, most ended up with losses.

Further research by academics from the University of Toronto, HEC Montréal, and ESSEC Business School, covering 2.4 million users and $67 billion in trading volume, indicated that 68.8% of users lost money since 2022. The top 1% of traders captured 76.5% of all gains, with the top 0.1% accounting for over half of the platform's total profits. These high-volume accounts, often bot-like, generated 75% of trading volume, with 823 netting over $100,000 each, collectively profiting $131 million. Less active traders, conversely, lost a similar amount in aggregate. While retail traders may have picked winning outcomes more often, they often lost due to entering positions later at unfavorable prices.

(Source：BeInCrypto)