Washington insider warns US defeat in Iran now “likely” – adding a new macro risk for Bitcoin

Robert Kagan, a prominent figure in US foreign policy, argues that the United States has likely suffered a strategic defeat in Iran, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz. This development introduces a new macro risk for Bitcoin, as it could lead to increased oil prices, shipping costs, and inflation, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Strait of Hormuz's importance in global oil and LNG traffic means any disruption or control by Iran can significantly impact global markets. This situation could lead to a reassessment of US maritime guarantees, potentially increasing the cost of global trade and security. The article suggests that this geopolitical shift could eventually lead markets to price in a "Hormuz discount" on US power, making assets like Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against traditional financial systems.

(Source：CryptoSlate)