Will Oil Price Drop Again or Has the Supply Shock Rewritten the Playbook?
Oil prices face a potential drop due to bearish divergence, but supply shocks and bullish options market sentiment suggest otherwise.Summary
Oil prices are at a technical juncture, mirroring a setup that previously led to a 13% drop. A bearish divergence, where price makes a higher high while momentum indicators make a lower high, is present. However, the underlying conditions have changed significantly. The options market shows a surge in bullish bets, with put-call ratios collapsing, indicating traders are anticipating a rise. This bullish sentiment is supported by fundamental factors, including significant production losses in the Persian Gulf and global inventory drawdowns, which Goldman Sachs cited in raising its Brent forecast. Key price levels to watch are $99.17, acting as a trigger point; a break above $107.46 could confirm a supply-shock-driven rally, while a fall below $99.17 might lead to a repeat of the April price drop.
(Source：BeInCrypto)