Only 3% of traders drive Polymarket's accuracy, not the crowd, study finds
CoinDesk
A study reveals that prediction market accuracy is driven by a small, skilled minority of traders rather than the collective crowd.Summary
A research paper from London Business School and Yale, analyzing 1.72 million Polymarket accounts, challenges the notion that prediction markets derive accuracy from the wisdom of the crowd. The study finds that only 3% of traders are consistently skilled, driving price discovery and reacting to new information, while the remaining 97% typically lose money. By using simulations to distinguish skill from luck, researchers demonstrated that these few informed participants move markets toward accurate outcomes, though their potential use of non-public information remains a significant regulatory and ethical concern for the industry.
(Source：CoinDesk)