Markets Anticipate Political Trouble for Trump As Impeachment Odds Rise to 70%

Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi are signaling increased expectations of political turmoil for President Donald Trump, with impeachment odds rising to approximately 67%. The contract, which tracks whether the House of Representatives will pass articles of impeachment, has seen over $2.76 million in trading volume. This surge is largely attributed to speculation regarding the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats are favored to regain control of the House, and concerns over Trump's foreign policy rhetoric, specifically regarding Iran. While the probability of impeachment has increased, the likelihood of actual removal from office remains significantly lower at roughly 27%, as this would require a difficult two-thirds Senate majority or the invocation of the 25th Amendment.

(Source：BeInCrypto)