‘Sports is the entry point, not the endgame’: Bernstein projects prediction market sector to reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030

Bernstein analysts project the prediction market sector to reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030, attributing this growth to increasing regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and a liquidity advantage over traditional gaming markets. While sports contracts currently dominate at 62%, they are expected to moderate to 31% by 2030, as crypto, macro, political, and economic contracts become larger opportunities. The firm anticipates an institutional market developing for these contracts, driven by investor demand for direct event exposure and hedging needs from corporations and insurance firms. Prediction markets are also expected to grow in annual recurring revenue from $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, with industry revenue potentially reaching $10.8 billion by 2030. Robinhood and Coinbase are identified as key distribution platforms, with Robinhood's Kalshi-powered prediction markets hub showing significant ARR growth. Bernstein maintains 'outperform' ratings on both Robinhood and Coinbase.

(Source：The Block)