Pro Traders Anticipate Low Odds of a Bitcoin Rally Toward $78,000
Professional traders assign less than a 17% probability for Bitcoin to break $78,000 soon, citing economic uncertainty and mixed ETF flows.Summary
Despite Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000, professional traders remain cautious about a significant rally toward $78,000, evidenced by derivatives pricing showing less than a 17% chance for this breakout by March 27. This skepticism is fueled by geopolitical tensions (US/Israel-Iran war), disappointing US labor data, and the fact that recent Bitcoin ETF inflows have not fully offset prior outflows. The futures market also shows stagnant demand for leveraged long positions, with the annualized premium remaining below the neutral 4% threshold. Strategists suggest that concerns over inflation driven by the global economic outlook are offsetting institutional ETF inflows. However, the increasing adoption of yield products related to MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares could eventually lead to sustained institutional demand, suggesting a potential breakout might occur after March.
(Source：Cointelegraph)