Bitcoin could face deeper downside as odds of U.S. market meltdown rise to 35%
Bitcoin is holding steady despite rising strategist predictions of a 35% chance of a U.S. market meltdown amid oil shocks and geopolitical tension.Summary
Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni increased the probability of a U.S. stock market meltdown to 35% (up from 20%) due to persistent oil prices above $100, a strong dollar, and expanding conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia. Bitcoin is currently trading relatively stable at $67,378, outperforming other major assets amid deteriorating global markets, though it historically falls during risk-off events. Yardeni noted the U.S. economy is "stuck between Iran and a hard place," facing inflation risks alongside rising unemployment if the oil shock continues. Research from NYDIG suggests that while Bitcoin correlates with U.S. stocks due to the macro regime, only about 25% of its price movements are explained by equity correlation, with 75% driven by external factors.
(Source：CoinDesk)