Oil shock could send Bitcoin down 45% if price surge forces Fed to delay cuts

A prolonged conflict involving Iran, lasting beyond seven weeks (50 days), could fundamentally change the economic shock, moving it from a temporary disruption to a structural inflation problem that central banks cannot ignore. If Brent crude remains elevated, pushing inflation higher, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay its projected June rate cut or hold rates at 3.75% to prevent inflation expectations from unanchoring. Bitcoin, which relies heavily on the 'Fed pivot' narrative for bullish momentum, faces significant headwinds as delayed easing stalls liquidity tailwinds. Various stress tests show that if Brent reaches $100, Bitcoin could drop 5% to 15%; at $125, a 15% to 35% drop is modeled due to growth drag; and at $150, a recession-risk regime could force a 25% to 45% sell-off as risk assets de-rate. Furthermore, higher energy prices could negatively impact Bitcoin miner profitability by increasing electricity costs, potentially leading to forced selling or shutdowns.

(Source：CryptoSlate)