Bitcoin Bulls Strike Back But $78K May Remain Resistance

Bitcoin recently surged to a four-week high, potentially setting up a recovery toward the January monthly close of $78,700. However, onchain and derivatives metrics suggest a lack of bullish conviction. The 30-day options skew shows a premium for put options, indicating professional traders fear further downside, and the annualized premium for BTC futures is below the neutral threshold. This caution is partly due to 43% of the circulating supply being held at a loss, suggesting potential overhead selling pressure as prices recover. Furthermore, the Bitcoin mining sector is under pressure from surging AI energy demand, forcing major listed miners to offload BTC holdings to pivot toward AI computing, driving the Hashprice index to record lows. A key psychological hurdle exists around $76,000, which is the average cost basis for major corporate holders like Strategy. Market participants have an incentive to keep the price below this level, suggesting that breaching $78,700 might take longer than anticipated.

(Source：Cointelegraph)