Nobitex outflows spur debate over Iranian crypto: cashing out or locking down?
Blockchain analysts disagree on whether a spike in Nobitex crypto outflows after Iranian airstrikes signals capital flight or internal security rebalancing.Summary
Following airstrikes in Iran on February 28th, crypto outflows from the country's largest exchange, Nobitex, surged by 873%, initially suggesting a 'digital bank run' as Iranians sought to secure assets. However, blockchain intelligence firms offer conflicting interpretations. TRM Labs argues the spike is misleading due to low baseline activity, suggesting the movement was actually internal hot-to-cold wallet rebalancing for security, especially after a major 2025 cyberattack on the exchange. TRM notes that sustained capital flight typically shows multi-day outflows and clear offshore routing, which were absent. Conversely, Elliptic observes steady, ongoing outflows averaging $1 million daily to overseas wallets, even during internet blackouts, consistent with capital flight patterns seen during previous disruptions. Chainalysis remains undecided, noting the difficulty in distinguishing between retail panic and institutional movements amidst the crisis and internet disruptions, highlighting how the same blockchain data can support competing narratives regarding Iran's $7.8 billion crypto shadow economy.
(Source：CoinDesk)