Did Bitcoin fail its safe haven test after US strikes on Iran? BlackRock’s 60 day data hints at what comes next
Bitcoin initially fell after US-Iran tensions, unlike gold, but BlackRock’s data suggests it may rebound within 60 days depending on oil prices and inflation.Summary
Bitcoin’s price reacted negatively to the recent US strikes on Iran, falling below $64,000 before stabilizing, a response differing from gold’s rise. This initial dip raises questions about its ‘safe haven’ status. However, analysis suggests Bitcoin’s behavior in the first 24 hours is less important than its performance after the initial shock subsides. The key factor will be the impact on oil prices; if oil remains stable around $80, Bitcoin could rebound by 10-25% within 60 days, mirroring its performance after the 2020 US-Iran escalation. If oil rises to $90-$100, the outlook is less favorable, with a potential range of -15% to +10%. BlackRock’s data indicates that Bitcoin often outperforms after initial turbulence, but the outcome depends heavily on whether the conflict remains contained and how it affects inflation, interest rates, and dollar liquidity. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs adds a new dynamic, providing a visible demand channel but also potentially amplifying selling pressure.
(Source：CryptoSlate)