Why Bitcoin surged toward $70k at US market open while oil and natural gas rocket upward

Bitcoin unexpectedly jumped over 6% toward $70,000 during Monday's U.S. market open, diverging from a risk-off macro environment where oil and natural gas prices soared due to Middle East escalation fears. The rally was not explained by typical short squeezes, as 24-hour liquidations were evenly split between longs and shorts. The primary driver appears to be the reopening of U.S. institutional liquidity channels, specifically the CME futures market and the spot Bitcoin ETF complex. The sharp widening of the CME premium over spot indicated institutions were paying up for regulated exposure, pulling spot prices higher through hedging and basis trades as market makers adjusted positions after the weekend.

This dynamic suggests that in the current ETF era, structural spot demand arriving through U.S. hours can overpower general risk sentiment, especially when the shock is inflation-adjacent rather than purely deflationary. Traders should monitor three key dials: the persistence of the oil risk premium, the continuation of spot ETF inflows, and the reaction of the USD and interest rates. If the oil premium holds, Bitcoin may remain resilient while other crypto assets lag, as its demand is routed through deeper, regulated channels.

(Source：CryptoSlate)