JPMorgan warns oil could surge to $120 if Iran war disrupts Gulf supply

JPMorgan strategists, led by Natasha Kaneva, warn that Brent crude could surge to $120 per barrel if disruptions from an escalating Middle East conflict last longer than three weeks, leading to the exhaustion of Gulf storage and forced production shut-ins. The final price depends on the scale and duration of supply losses, the mobilization of replacement barrels or strategic reserves, and the continued constraint of shipping through vital routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers have about 22 days of output stored onshore; disruptions exceeding three weeks could force output curbs, pushing Brent into the $100–$120 range. Historically, regime changes in major oil producers have caused average price increases of 76%. Markets reacted strongly to recent military escalations, with Brent crude rising above $80, boosting energy and defense stocks.

(Source：Crypto Briefing)