Polymarket Breaks $478 Million Record as Kalshi Khamenei Market Sparks Backlash

Polymarket experienced a surge in trading activity, reaching a record $478 million in single-day notional volume, largely driven by geopolitical events like the coordinated strikes on Iran. The platform's political category accounted for nearly half of this activity. Simultaneously, Kalshi, another prediction market, faced backlash for its contract concerning Ali Khamenei's leadership, with critics alleging it functioned as a proxy death market. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended the market's design and settlement process, emphasizing adherence to U.S. regulations and the focus on political outcomes rather than mortality. Both instances highlight the growing role and inherent risks of prediction markets, raising ethical concerns and attracting regulatory scrutiny as they increasingly blur the lines between financial speculation and geopolitical forecasting.

(Source：BeInCrypto)