BTC price analysis: Bitcoin market bottom may be nearing, at least if measured against gold
Bitcoin's market bottom might be imminent in February 2026 based on its price against gold, despite a longer potential bottom when measured in USD.Summary
Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, suggests Bitcoin's market bottom could arrive as soon as next month (February 2026) when the price is measured against gold, based on historical 12-13 month bear market cycles. When priced in USD, the peak occurred in October 2025, suggesting a bottom potentially extending into late 2026. This divergence is attributed to macroeconomic factors, including trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions under Donald Trump's mandate, which have driven capital into gold, causing Bitcoin to weaken against it sooner. Despite outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, large investors, or 'whales,' are accumulating during this downturn, evidenced by firms like Mubadala Investment Company increasing their ETF exposure. Szuster advises investors to use dollar-cost averaging to build positions intelligently during this period of fear, noting that buying during fear is historically more effective than during euphoria.
(Source：CoinDesk)