Polymarket traders bet record $500 million on U.S.-Iran war

Prediction market Polymarket experienced record trading volumes, with bets on U.S.-Iran conflict outcomes topping $529 million, making it one of the platform's largest single markets ever. Following strikes launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, new contracts emerged covering ceasefire timelines, the collapse of the Iranian regime, and leadership succession, including one on Ayatollah Khamenei's death which resolved to 100% and saw $45 million in volume. The largest market, concerning U.S. strikes on Iran by a specific date, generated $529 million, rivaling top Trump-related election contracts. The platform allows for real-time trading on geopolitical events that traditional markets cannot immediately address. Furthermore, on-chain analytics identified six wallets that profited significantly by betting on the exact timing of the February 28th strike, leading Polymarket to issue a statement defending its role in providing accurate forecasts.

(Source：CoinDesk)