Polymarket Traders Make $1M on US-Iran Strike Bets, Spark Insider Concerns

Six traders on the prediction market Polymarket collectively earned about $1 million by accurately betting on a US strike against Iran occurring before the end of February. Data from Bubblemaps SA showed that these six wallets, all created in February, placed trades shortly before explosions were reported in Tehran, with some shares bought just hours before the news broke. This timing has led onchain investigators to suspect insider activity, as the platform's anonymity and the nature of conflict information circulation create incentives for informed participants to act early. The US had publicly warned of possible military action for weeks, drawing speculators. In total, over $529 million flowed into strike-related contracts on Polymarket during the escalation. This incident follows other recent allegations of insider trading on the platform, including profits made on bets related to an investigation into Axiom and a wager on the capture of Nicolás Maduro. In response to these concerns, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, aimed at banning insider trading on prediction platforms for government officials and appointees.

(Source：Cointelegraph)