U.S.-Iran war updates: Polymarket racks up $50M bets as tensions rage on
Polymarket saw over $50 million in wagers across dozens of Iran-related contracts following recent strikes, including a $45 million market on Khamenei's death.Summary
Following strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, the prediction market Polymarket experienced a massive surge in activity, generating over $50 million in volume across new contracts related to the conflict. The largest market, betting on the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei by March 31, resolved to 100% and pulled in $45 million, making it one of the platform's most-traded geopolitical markets. Current markets are pricing the probability of a ceasefire, the fall of the Iranian regime by June 30, and the possibility of a U.S. ground invasion. The platform allows real-time betting on events that traditional markets cannot easily cover. Furthermore, on-chain analytics identified six wallets that profited significantly, netting $1.2 million, by betting on a U.S. strike occurring on February 28, hours before it happened. Bitcoin subsequently rallied to $68,000 on the thesis that the leadership turmoil might lead to de-escalation.
(Source：CoinDesk)