Suspected insiders make over $1.2 million on Polymarket ahead of U.S. strike on Iran

Six suspected insider accounts on the prediction market Polymarket collectively earned approximately $1.2 million after accurately betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28, 2026. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that most of these wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and purchased "Yes" shares in the relevant market shortly before explosions were reported in Tehran. These accounts showed no other trading activity, and one single account netted nearly $560,000 from a position bought at 10.8 cents. The event, which followed President Donald Trump's announcement of "major combat operations," also caused Bitcoin's price to drop and oil futures to rise. The trades highlight ongoing regulatory scrutiny over insider activity on prediction markets, as rival platform Kalshi recently suspended users for similar offenses, and the CFTC has warned about insider trading violations.

(Source：CoinDesk)