New Bitcoin cycle data projects BTC will lose half its value before December

A newly developed "Akiba Cycle Model v2," based on four historical Bitcoin cycles, projects that BTC will experience a 72.5% drawdown from its cycle high of $126,219, leading to a cycle low near $35,000 in December 2026. The model incorporates Monte Carlo simulation, walk-forward validation, and leave-one-out cross-validation, breaking the cycle into drawdown, timing, and recovery components. Historical drawdowns have been easing (94.1% to 77.6%), leading to the 72.5% projection for the fifth cycle. The timing component suggests the cycle low will occur approximately 980 days after the April 2024 halving, pointing to late 2026. The recovery multiple component introduces the widest uncertainty, projecting a median next-halving price of $172,000, with a wide P10–P90 range of $60,000 to $489,000. The model's primary forecastable variable is the cycle low, which is estimated to cluster around $34,700.

(Source：CryptoSlate)